Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Friday, October 23, 2026
What's going on, and why does it matter?
Mortgage bonds appear to be giving back some of their recent gains, though they are ending the week better than they started. It will be interesting to see whether they can establish solid support at their 30-day moving average, as this could be a springboard for a rally. Meanwhile, oil prices remain elevated, and many underlying risk factors remain outstanding. Later this morning, the market will digest a few economic surveys.
What should you do about it?
Watch to see if mortgage bonds can hold their ground above their 30-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if they break below that level.
Economic Calendar
Economic reports that may impact mortgage rates this week:
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 27 | Durable Goods | Sep | 0.0% | 1.5% | |
| Tue Oct 27 | New Home Sales | Sep | 684k | 650k | |
| Tue Oct 27 | Consumer Confidence | Oct | 81.9 | 81.0 | |
| Wed Oct 28 | US Trade Deficit | Sep | -$132.6B | -$130B | |
| Wed Oct 28 | Fed Funds Rate | - | 4.0% | 4.0% | |
| Thu Oct 29 | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Oct 24 | 194k | 200k | |
| Thu Oct 29 | GDP - 1st est. | Q3 2026 | 1.5% | 3.2% | |
| Thu Oct 29 | Personal Income | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Thu Oct 29 | PCE month-over-month | Sep | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| Thu Oct 29 | Core PCE month-over-month | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Thu Oct 29 | PCE year-over-year | Sep | 3.4% | 3.6% | |
| Thu Oct 29 | Core PCE year-over-year | Sep | 3.0% | 3.1% | |
| Fri Oct 30 | Chicago PMI | Oct | 58.8 | 55.5 |