Bond Market Update
Bond Market Update
Market Update
Friday, April 3, 2026
What's going on, and why does it matter?
The always-important monthly jobs report came out this morning much stronger than expected, showing 178,000 jobs were created last month. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.3%, and average earnings rose 0.2%, both lower than expected. Mortgage bonds are selling off in the early morning trade, but the good news is they may rebound off their 200-day moving average, which has been operating as a level of technical support. The stock market is closed today for Good Friday, and the bond market closes early, so trading volume may be muted.
What should you do about it?
Watch for mortgage bonds to remain above their 200-day moving average, but be prepared to lock your rate if they fall back below that level.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Report | Period | Prior | Est. | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 6 Apr | ISM Services PMI | Mar | 56.1 | 55.0 | |
| Tue 7 Apr | Durable Goods Orders | Feb | 0.0% | -0.5% | |
| Wed 8 Apr | Minutes from the March Fed meeting | - | - | - | |
| Thu 9 Apr | Personal Income | Feb | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| Thu 9 Apr | PCE month-over-month | Feb | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| Thu 9 Apr | Core PCE month-over-month | Feb | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Thu 9 Apr | PCE year-over-year | Feb | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| Thu 9 Apr | Core PCE year-over-year | Feb | 3.1% | 3.0% | |
| Thu 9 Apr | GDP 2nd est. | Q4 2025 | 4.4% | 0.7% | |
| Thu 9 Apr | Initial Jobless Claims | Week ending Apr 4 | 202k | 209k | |
| Fri 10 Apr | CPI month-over-month | Mar | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| Fri 10 Apr | Core CPI month-over-month | Mar | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Fri 10 Apr | CPI year-over-year | Mar | 2.4% | 3.3% | |
| Fri 10 Apr | Core CPI year-over-year | Mar | 2.5% | 2.7% | |
| Fri 10 Apr | Factory Orders | Feb | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| Fri 10 Apr | U of Mich. Consumer Sent. | Apr | 55.5 | 52.0 |